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Puerh Tea Bulls and Bears

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By Jane Pettigrew 

Following her previous article about different types and qualities of puerh teas from Yunnan province, Jane Pettigrew discusses what’s happening in the market since the puerh bubble burst almost two years ago. 

Between 2004 and 2007, the price of puerh tea rose dramatically with famous brands fetching prices that were five times the cost of production. When the bubble burst in spring 2007, prices began to fall back but the recent craze for puerh has left behind it a good deal of confusion. Tea merchants are wary and connoisseur tea drinkers are dazed by the wide range of prices. Browse the internet for puerh cakes, and you will find prices that vary from just a few dollars to several thousand dollars and it is not easy to understand why there is such a gaping chasm between the cheapest and the most expensive.

Stories still circulate about discs of compressed puerh selling at US$8,000- US$12,000, and in chic tea stores in Kunming, the capital of Yunnan province, puerh cakes made in the 1920s are being sold for as much as US$18,750. Tim d’Offay (who specialises in high quality puerhs at his shop Postcard Teas in London) explains that, "In the 1990s, when I was introduced to puerh by Michael Ng of WingKee Tea – he popularised puerh in Hong Kong during the 80s and 90s – he was selling 20-year old cakes for a couple of hundred dollars. Those cakes would now be worth thousands of dollars."

However, from Hong Kong, Sunsingtea explains, "After the collapse of the boom in spring 2007, the price of new puerh dropped back almost to 2004 prices. Since the boom, prices have been more stable and more reasonable, although for antique puerhs that are over 50 years old, the price will continue to go up steadily."

The effects of the boom
During the boom, puerhs were made for quantity rather than quality, simply to fulfil the increase in orders, and new traders entered the market without any experience of puerh trading. Their sole aim was to make quick money! They bought teas that they didn’t understand and certainly hadn’t tasted or even seen before buying. According to Sunsingtea, it was difficult as a small trader during those years to find a reliable manufacturer simply because producers knew that they could easily find larger buyers who would offer a higher price. But then when the market collapsed, those get-rich-quick traders disappeared and the reliable, quality producers and merchants continued to make, buy and sell good teas.

Anyone who had been working with reliable, established producers and traders and had stayed clear of the fortune-hunters was not affected by the sudden craze.

Ed Eisler of Jing Tea in London has found that, "Attitudes among the producers I buy from have not changed over the past few years. They have always taken a quality, long-term view, did produce quality and still do. My friends in the puerh tea trade are still collecting the best teas both old and new."

Nigel Melican of Nothing But Tea has always bought his puerhs from suppliers who were "more level headed throughout; we avoided the bubble phenomenon where traders expected high margins for sometimes dubious quality due to undersupply."

Producer Dong Bi Lien, wife of Master Liu of Kunming’s Jin Damo Teas, explained, "Prices have dropped by more than half but we have not changed ours. Our customers know puerh and know what is good and bad and know what they want to buy."

Customers of respected companies such as Jin Damo continue to buy from them because they trust and respect them for their consistently high quality traditionally-aged puerhs and for the fact that they maintain total integrity and refuse to get caught up in short-term trends, irrelevant marketing ploys or fancy claims. Their prices reflect the excellent quality of the teas but remain reasonable and realistic and allow connoisseurs with widely varying budgets to continue to purchase and enjoy their compressed cakes.

As well as causing confusion and some rogue trading, the recent boom and bust period did have some positive effects. The increased demand meant that the smaller traders started to order higher quality teas and so manufacturers in famous mountain areas responded accordingly. As a result, the established quality producers are thriving and some quality new brands and tea shops have been established, are continuing to make and sell good teas and are doing well. And as supply now outstrips demand, manufacturers are keen to make higher quality teas in order to capture the attention and money of discerning traders.

Edgar Thoemmes, who buys puerhs for The Canton Tea Company in the UK, agrees that "manufacturers are concentrating on producing better quality puerh instead of dropping prices significantly", and he says that the downturn in the puerh market "was a good thing for consumers; as the price went down it made the genuine quality stock more accessible. And the reduced price offered less incentive to fraudsters who were releasing fake puerh onto the market – a practice that was rife during the boom."

Changing market
There is no doubt that the market has changed and large towns in the south of Yunnan province that were thriving a few years ago on the increased demand for puerh and the subsequent rise in prices now have a rather depressed air about them and the shopping streets have fewer tea stores than before.

Dan Robertson, who has been buying puerh for years for his Chicago-based company The Tea House, has noticed that "a lot of small manufacturers have closed down and are struggling. I get the feeling that the tea trading business there has still not settled down and is still a bit confused. Now that the bottom has basically fallen out of the market, some people are trying to revert back to other teas. One factory that I used to visit completely converted to puerh even though they had been making greens and blacks for years. The puerh tea quality was not so good but it was profitable and in demand. Now they and the people they sell to are shifting back to the conventional items."

In Kunming, the tea market is quiet and row upon row of open-fronted tea stores, with shelf upon shelf of puerh and other teas, wait for the customers who don’t come. Perhaps more buyers are now working through private traders they know they can trust.

Buying puerh tea today
With all the recent variations in price, anyone who doesn’t have a thorough understanding of the puerh market can end up paying over the odds for the teas. The only way to avoid being hoodwinked is to buy from companies with whom a trusting relationship has been developed or to work with tea producers who are prepared to open the gates of their tea garden, show you their ancient trees and allow you to watch the hand-making ritual of puerh manufacture.

For example, Master Liu and his family, who have been making Jin Damo puerhs since the 1920s, have won the respect and trust of customers in China, Japan and the UK by their willingness to share their knowledge, experience and passion for fine quality teas.

Like other reputable companies, they own ancient trees and process the leaves by hand according to the traditional method; they have trained a dedicated team who lovingly work the leaves into top quality puerh cakes; they never cut corners and only produce a limited quantity of high quality teas each year. They claim for their teas only what they know to be true and they work closely with their customers so that their respected buyers can take the story out into the tea drinking world with understanding and integrity. Customers go back and back because they have total trust in the quality and the prices.

Changing variables
But, the number of variables involved in the production of quality puerh teas (the age of the bush or tree; the traditional ‘slow’ and the modern ‘fast’ methods of manufacture; the care taken in processing the leaf; the control of temperature and humidity during storage and the fact that it is impossible to know how the character of the teas is changing, for better or worse, during storage), means that the average buyer is often at the mercy of the suppliers and so, during the boom, merchants were able to charge unbelievably high prices for less than top quality teas. The provenance of the leaf, the age of the trees, and the age of the manufactured puerh tea itself tended during the boom years to take on more significance and importance than the actual quality and taste of the tea and prices went up accordingly. The roller coaster ride that puerh prices took until a year or so ago was mainly in the raw puerh market – both young and aged - a market that Tim d’Offay says he "was not tempted to enter because I perceived it as an investment market with people piling in as they thought they could make money. In Hong Kong, I saw people buying certain two-year old puerhs in large quantities, and therefore affecting demand and forcing the price up."

Too much money
High prices for excellent quality teas that have been well made and carefully stored are justifiable, but in cases where buyers do not and cannot necessarily know the truth behind the marketing story, too much money can change hands.

Whether or not such high prices are justifiable, the question remains as to whether they are realistic or sustainable?

Edgar Thoemmes thinks perhaps they are.

"Vintage puerh is still in short supply and with high domestic demand and increased demand from the West, prices for rare puerh will stay high and increase over time," he said. "Younger puerhs and, increasingly, cooked puerhs, will continue to improve and mellow with age – so they too will increase in price over the next few years."

But Dan Robertson says, "When I first started buying puerhs, they were quite expensive. The really old ones were dear but nothing near as much as they go for today. But I don’t think we will see those outrageous prices for mediocre teas again."

And Marcus Wulf of Hamburg Teehandlers says that "Prices reached a high point in 2007 but since 2008, they have been going down and have now reached a more normal level. I believe that prices should be stable for at least a year."

Nigel Melican of Nothing But Tea agrees.

"Our puerh cost prices are stable which in the light of reduced purchase power of the pound indicates perhaps some decline in price at source," he said. "I am happy that the puerh bubble price driver in South East Asia and the USA is now reduced so I would expect a period of price stability."

Is it worth it?
How do tea shops and wholesalers know that what they’re offering customers is worth the money charged?"We rely on our trusted buying partners who, even after 10 years in the business, are still mentored by a fifth generation Cantonese tea master whose family has been in the tea trade – specialising in puerh – since the Qing Dynasty," according to Edgar Thoemmes. "They are passionate, experienced and utterly uncompromising on quality and they have an enviable reputation to uphold."

Tim d’Offay prefers to only buy from Jin Damo, the company he trusts and respects more than others. Jin Damo understands the needs of the avid tea drinker and produces puerh cakes in different sizes ranging from 750g to 100g to meet customers’ needs.

"Although people will pay high prices for special tea, the normal large size of puerh cakes means they have to buy puerh in larger quantities than their more usual 50g bags of loose leaf teas," D’Offay explained. "We sell a lot of Jin Damo 100g cakes because of the incredible quality of the tea and because the size is more convenient and cost effective than a larger cake."

The future of the puerh market
Most buyers now seem to expect prices to remain stable but recognise that there are still anomalies and some prices may increase.

"Prices are more negotiable now than they were 2 years ago – it depends on your relationship with your suppliers," Dan Robertson said, but: "Just watch out and be sure of what you are getting – a lot of tea shops really don’t know what they are selling," he warned.

"China is perhaps entering a bull financial market (maybe) with very strong gains in its equities. Ed Eisler pointed out. "This should aid the recovery of the puerh market but I think it will be harder to find the kind of huge short term gains from newly produced puerh tea that you saw a few years back."

One aspect to be aware of is the fact that some maocha for making puerh in Yunnan has in the past (and still today) been grown outside the province in GuangXi, Szechwan, GuangDong, Thailand and Vietnam, for example, and some teas sold as puerh have been made totally or partially from teas grown outside Yunnan.

In order to protect Puerh teas, new government regulations now state that, as from January 2009, new teas may only be sold as ‘puerh’ if they have been "made with large-leafed sun dried maocha grown within the designated area of Yunnan. The production must be completed within the geographical area indicated and make use of a specific process."

There are 639 townships in 11 prefectures and cities that may grow and process puerh and these include the city of Puerh, Kunming City, Xishuangbanna in the south and Dai Autonomous Prefecture further north. Even if teas from outside those designated areas are made by the traditional puerh methodology, they cannot be sold as puerh – an even more powerful reason perhaps to only buy puerh teas from a trusted and approved source.

Continuing confusion
Discussions with traders around the world highlight the continuing confusion about different types of puerh, whether raw or cooked is better, what does wild or semi-wild mean, can the leaves of modern cultivated bushes make good puerhs, why there are such huge differences in price and how much one should expect to pay.

Today, fortunately, information is becoming more available to help in understanding and choosing puerhs. But the best advice still seems to be to only buy from established, reliable, trusted suppliers.

Puerh Facts

• Traditionally, the standard weight for round puerh cakes is 375g; today, there are no rigid weight controls and round tea cakes are made in many different sizes – from 100g to 2.5kg

• Since 1972, round tea cakes have often been stacked in sevens and wrapped with bamboo; seven is a lucky number in China and a stack of seven cakes is thought to bring good fortune to the family

• Correct conditions for storing Puerh cakes are stable temperature, stable humidity, no light, no odors, and well ventilated

Puerh Facts

• The ‘Age of Antique Puerh Vintage’ refers mainly to teas produced before the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949

• The ‘New Era of Puerh Tea’ started in 1997 when many new puerh merchants started making and selling their own branded puerh cakes

• Puerh teas differ in price according to their age

• The older the teas, the better it is supposed to taste

• Raw puerhs taste best after at least 10 years

• Ripe puerhs begin to taste good after 2-3 years